The Venezuelan narcodictatorship defied the international community with an election farce in the midst of an economic crisis and an unprecedented international isolation. Is it a success or a mistake? Why that defiance? You will find the answers in the translation of this article published in edition 226 A of The New Republic (La Nueva República ).
Nicolás Maduro y Raúl Castro
Following Fidel Castro’s example leads chavistas straight to the slaughterhouse
The election farce of Sunday, May 20, in Venezuela was a provocation against the United States, a slap in the international community’s face and a mockery of the Venezuelan people and the democratic opposition. It seems as if Maduro and his group wanted to show that in Venezuela they do as they please and nothing happens. A poorly-planned and definitely risky action. It could also be a part of a plan drawn up between Raúl Castro and his chavista partners. A strategy that rests on an assumption by the late Fidel Castro that the Americans would not dare invade Venezuela. Castro’s recipe always was to defy the giant that does not do anything anyway, but following Fidel Castro’s example leads chavistas to the slaughterhouse.
So, why escalate the crisis?
First. In the face of the serious economic situation, Venezuela finds that by defying an outside enemy it distracts the attention of a part of the population, unites the regime’s forces and justifies persecution even within government ranks. If Maduro counts on a million fanatics and opportunists, from now on he will need them more committed to his side than ever. Any sign of disloyalty or dissent will be immediately suppressed. This is the moment to radicalize the process. Colombia’s president rightly warned that: “The Constituent Assembly, which was born spurious because its origin is illegal, is drawing up a new Constitution to passed after the elections in Maduro’s new term. And what they’re going to do is more repression, because the information we have is that one of its articles will abolish universal suffrage to impose a corporate system like the one that elected the Constituent Assembly. It’s the strengthening of the dictatorial regime.”
Second. When the right moment comes, Raúl Castro would be the ideal mediator, he would be the savior. The key man to avoid a confrontation between the United States and Venezuela. In exchange for his good offices, Trump’s government would give him some guarantees to remaining in power in the Island, and Castro would have no problem improving the recent cosmetic measures. They already have a president whose last name is not Castro and Díaz Canel could even announce and start reforms.
Some statements point to that direction. On May 24, EFE reported that: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel does not believe that the present US policy from the US government towards Cuba will be permanent and stated that: “there are still points of contact and willingness” to continue to move forward in the relation on the basis of respect and equality. Venezuela-Cuban businessman Gustavo Cisneros last year told EFE that the solution to the Venezuelan crisis must be found in a dance of three, with Cuba and Colombia also on the dance floor and “music by the United States.” On May 15, 2018, Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said that: “Cuba has played a very positive role in solving conflicts and in assisting transition processes, for example, reaching the peace agreement between the Colombian government, and FARC. We also welcome Cuba’s readiness to host the peace talks with ELN. We hope Cuba can also play a role in addressing the situation in Venezuela.” Castrism knows it is a good business to light the fire and then dress up as a fireman to put it out.
Undoubtedly, there are interests that believe Raúl Castro could negotiate Venezuela’s situation with Trump’s government. Besides, what else could Raúl Castro have that could interest Washington and could guarantee castrism it would remain in power for another generation? I am not a pessimist. For the United States to accept Raúl Castro as a mediator is something altogether different.
Third. With this last election move the Venezuelan narco dictatorship wants to overwhelm the opposition so Venezuelans are convinced that the opposition’s leadership has not been able to confront it. In this context the migration of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans from their country plays in favor of the dictatorship. It is the outlet for the most desperate, which allows them to escape instead of staying on to fight.
The fact that Castro’s and Maduro’s plans have these aims does not guarantee their success. They may overwhelm the Venezuelan opposition for awhile, they may unite their chavista fanatics for some more time. Also, as Federica Mogherini wants, Raúl Castro could mediate. What happens is that we are not in the 60’s when Fidel Castro wanted to believe –and world media have repeated it since- that he had defeated the Americans in the Playa Girón invasion, something which was an invasion only in name. It was a bunch of Cubans deceived into believing that the United States would support them when the moment arrived and that was exactly what did not happen, a true fiasco. In present times, conflicts are much more complex and weapons are more sophisticated. Allowing themselves to be guided by Fidel Castro’s example and strategy has led chavistas to discredit and disaster. It will also lead them straight to the slaughterhouse.
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